Survey on Mississippi GOP Voter Mood Post US Senate Primary Runoff

We recently conducted a follow up survey of MS GOP runoff voters to get their reactions to the election results and the controversy surrounding the crossover Democratic votes. We completed a total of 832 interviews on June 27th. The MOE was +/- 3.4 %.

Reaction to Cochran’s Outreach to Democrats?

While nearly all Cochran’s supporters (96%) characterized the campaign’s outreach to Democratic voters as “politics as usual”, almost three quarters of McDaniel voters disagreed, terming the action as a “dirty trick”.

Support for an Election Investigation?

Nine in ten McDaniel supporters want a thorough investigation of potential voter fraud in the GOP primary runoff. And more than 10% of Cochran’s supporters agree.

The Barbour Legacy?

When reminded of former Governor Barbour’s role in the Cochran campaign, 86% of McDaniel supporters say they now have a lower opinion of him, (62 % saying they have a “Much lower opinion). Only 7% of Cochran’s supporters have a lower opinion of Barbour because of his campaign involvement.

Reconciliation with the GOP Establishment?

When we asked McDaniel supporters which candidate they would support in the general election, 21% said they would vote for Democrat Travis Childers and another 16% said they would probably not vote at all. Only 22% of McDaniel’s supporters were committed to vote for Cochran in November.

Support for a McDaniel Third Party Bid?

We asked McDaniel voters if they would support him on a third party ticket. 79% said they would definitely abandon the GOP and support McDaniel. Another 8% said they would probably vote for him. When we looked closer at the McDaniel voters who had earlier said they would support the nominee in the fall, almost half of them (49%) changed their minds when presented with the possibility of a third party bid for McDaniel.

Support for a McDaniel Write In Campaign?

We then asked McDaniel voters if they would support him in a write in campaign. 74% said definitely yes and another 7% said they probably would. Again, when we looked closer at the McDaniel voters who had earlier said they would support the nominee in the fall, 45% of them changed their minds when presented with the possibility of a write in option for McDaniel.

Other Notes:

1. Our ratio of McDaniel to Cochran supporters in this survey is 54:46. This is consistent with the NYT Upshot preliminary analysis of the actual vote tallies among traditional Republican voters.

2. These surveys include only landline phones.

3. These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s) he voted in the recent GOP Primary runoff and only recorded responses from those who could remember the candidate they supported.

4. The sample is 96% Caucasian, 2% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The survey over represents women and older voters but we don’t find substantial differences by gender or age in the responses. We do not know the gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout.

6. We caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from the small samples in some of the cross tabs.

Tables: Survey Responses

Toplines


Cochran's Tactics
Electoral Investigation
Barbour's Involvement
Third Party Ticket
Write In Support

Ages

 

 

Gender

 

 

 

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