Our Latest Public Opinion Survey on the US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff
We have continued to track the GOP Senate Primary runoff. On June 17th and 18th we surveyed 1192 GOP primary voters statewide. The MOE was +/- 2.85%. Our most recent survey confirms that McDaniel now holds a lead outside the margin of error.
On the following pages are the results of our tracking work. We include weighted top lines as well as tables that show results by age and gender.
Important Points to Remember
1. While the surveys are consistent in showing McDaniel’s lead growing among voters from the June 3rd primary, our work does not measure for the potential growth in turnout.
- Cochran’s field efforts in the Delta, DeSoto County, Jackson County and other areas where he underperformed on June 3rd are much more extensive in the runoff.
- The GOP establishment is “all in” with TV ads by Governor Bryant, former Senator Lott, and campaign appearances by Senator John McCain.
- Cochran’s awkward appeal for Democrats to cross over is unlikely to produce huge results but with so few votes separating the candidates, all new votes are valuable.
2. No survey can fully capture the extent of the backlash among rank and file Republicans to Cochran’s tactics in the runoff.
- A 42 year incumbent GOP senator stumping for Democratic and union votes will certainly anger more conservative Republicans.
- Cochran’s assemblage of plutocrats has not gone unnoticed by the populists among McDaniel’s base.
- 3. In a campaign defined by the bizarre, we don’t know what is in store over the next 72 hours.
- Example: At the writing of this memo there is yet another firestorm over a Cochran endorsement ad by NFL great Brett Favre whose brother was serving time for a manslaughter conviction before a pardon by former Governor Haley Barbour.
1. These surveys include only landline phones.
2. These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if
(s) he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked each participant if (s) he planned to vote in the runoff.
3. The sample is 95% Caucasian, 3% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The raw survey data over represents women and older voters.
4. Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results. The candidate support totals noted above are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%. These are the same assumptions as in previous surveys.
5. With younger voters, the sample sizes are smaller and the charts show more variation from one wave to the next.