New Survey on the US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

Friday evening (June 13th) we conducted a statewide survey of likely Mississippi GOP primary runoff voters. We surveyed only voters who participated in the June 3rd GOP primary. The sample is 821 households with a MOE of +/-3.3%

A Race Too Close to Call

A weighted calculation of survey results shows the race is essentially even. The Cochran lead of 1% is within the margin of error. Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff?

Thad Cochran 48%
Chris McDaniel 47%
Undecided 5%

Observations

  • Mississippi law allows anyone who didn’t vote in the June 3rd Democratic Primary to vote in the GOP Primary runoff. However, the Cochran plan to expand the electorate with Democrats is a hard lift— the most likely Democratic voters are ineligible to participate in the runoff.
  • The real question is: How will Cochran’s new “big D“ Democratic message that there is an essential role for the federal government in the Mississippi economy and society impact turnout? 
    • Will traditional “general election Republicans” in university towns, the shipyards and military base communities where Cochran underperformed in the primary adequately respond to this appeal? 
    • Will the reminders about Cochran’s longevity and power in Washington energize McDaniel supporters even more? 

Other Notes

  1. These surveys include only landline phones.
  2. These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s)he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked each participant if (s)he planned to vote in the runoff.
  3. The sample is 95% Caucasian, 3% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The raw survey data over represents women and older voters.
  4. Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results. The candidate support totals noted above are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%. These are the same assumptions as in previous surveys.   

The charts below are unweighted responses. We caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic groups with a small subsample number. (Minority voters and all voters under age 45). 

Unweighted Toplines

Q1 Did you vote in the Republican Primary for US Senate?%

1 Yes 821 100%
Grand Total 821 100%
Q2 Will you be voting in the runoff?#%
 1 Definitely voting  797 97% 
 2 Probably vote  24  3%
 Grand Total  821  100%
Q3 Gender#%
1 Male   316  38%
2 Female  505  62%
 Grand Total  821  100%
Q4 Age#%
1 18 to 35  12 1%
2 36 to 45  16  2%
3 46 to 54  63  8%
4 55 to 64  140  17%
 5 65 or older  590  72%
 Grand Total  821  100%
Q5 Ethnicity#%
1 African American 24 3%
2 Caucasian or White 782 95%
2 Other 15 2%
Grand Total 821 100%
Q5 Which candidate do you plan to support?#%
1 Thad Cochran 392 48%
2 Chris McDaniel 365 44%
3 Undecided 64 8%
Grand Total 821 100%
CD#%
001 169 21%
002  121 15% 
003  264  32%
004  267  33%
Grand Total  821  100%

Unweighted Crosstabs

Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff? Q3: Gender
Q6 Support Male Female Total
1 Thad Cochran 46% 49% 48%
2 Chris McDaniel 48% 42% 44%
3 Undecided 6% 9% 8%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%
Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff?: Q4 Age
Q6 Support 1 18 to 35 2 36 to 45 3 46 to 54 4 55 to 64 5 65 or older Grand Total
1 Thad Cochran 58% 56% 37% 50% 48% 48%
2 Chris McDaniel 42% 44% 60% 44% 43% 44%
3 Undecided 0% 0% 3% 6% 9% 8%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff?: CD
Q6 Support 001 002 003 004 Grand Total
1 Thad Cochran 47% 58% 56% 35% 48%
2 Chris McDaniel 42% 35% 38% 57% 44%
3 Undecided 11% 7% 6% 8% 8%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
 Weighting AssumptionsMaleFemale
    47% 53%
18 to 45 21% 9.9% 11.1%
46 to 54 20% 9.4% 10.6%
55 to 64 23% 10.8% 12.2%
65 or older 36% 16.9% 19.1%

Survey Instrument

[Intro] Hello, this is XXXXXXXX, a national survey firm calling with a one minute survey about the US Senate Race in Mississippi. I’d like to ask you a few short questions and get you to use your telephone keypad to respond.

Q1. Earlier this month Mississippi held its Republican Primary election for US Senate. Did you get a chance to vote in the Republican Primary for US Senate?

  1. Press 1 for Yes
  2. Press 2 for NO Go to END CALL
  3. Press 3 if you cannot remember Go to END CALL

Q2. Thanks. What about your plans to vote in the runoff for the Republican Primary election for US Senate on June 24th? Are you definitely voting, probably voting, probably not voting, or are you unsure?

  1. Press 1 if you are definitely voting in the June 24th Republican Primary runoff for US Senate
  2. Press 2 if you will probably vote
  3. Press 3 if you will probably not vote Go to END CALL
  4. Press 4 if you are unsure. Go to END CALL 

Q3. Great. I’d like to ask you just a couple more questions. And just to make sure we get a good cross section of Mississippi Republican voters, can you tell us your gender?

  1. Press 1 for Male
  2. Press 2 for Female

Q4. Thanks. Now please tell us your age range.

  1. Press 1 if you are 18 to 35 years
  2. Press 2 if you are 36 to 45 years
  3. Press 3 if you are 46 to 54 years
  4. Press 4 if you are 55 to 64 years
  5. Or press 5 if you are 65 or older

Q5. Thanks. For statistical purposes only, please tell us your ethnicity.

  1. Press 1 for African American
  2. Press 2 for Caucasian or White
  3. Press 3 for some other ethnicity

Q6. Thanks. Last Question. Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff between Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel?

  1. Press 1 for Thad Cochran
  2. Press 3 for Chris McDaniel
  3. Press 4 if you are undecided

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