New Survey on the US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff
Friday evening (June 13th) we conducted a statewide survey of likely Mississippi GOP primary runoff voters. We surveyed only voters who participated in the June 3rd GOP primary. The sample is 821 households with a MOE of +/-3.3%
A Race Too Close to Call
A weighted calculation of survey results shows the race is essentially even. The Cochran lead of 1% is within the margin of error. Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff?
- Mississippi law allows anyone who didn’t vote in the June 3rd Democratic Primary to vote in the GOP Primary runoff. However, the Cochran plan to expand the electorate with Democrats is a hard lift— the most likely Democratic voters are ineligible to participate in the runoff.
- The real question is: How will Cochran’s new “big D“ Democratic message that there is an essential role for the federal government in the Mississippi economy and society impact turnout?
- Will traditional “general election Republicans” in university towns, the shipyards and military base communities where Cochran underperformed in the primary adequately respond to this appeal?
- Will the reminders about Cochran’s longevity and power in Washington energize McDaniel supporters even more?
- These surveys include only landline phones.
- These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s)he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked each participant if (s)he planned to vote in the runoff.
- The sample is 95% Caucasian, 3% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The raw survey data over represents women and older voters.
- Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results. The candidate support totals noted above are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%. These are the same assumptions as in previous surveys.
The charts below are unweighted responses. We caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic groups with a small subsample number. (Minority voters and all voters under age 45).
Q1 Did you vote in the Republican Primary for US Senate?%
|Q2 Will you be voting in the runoff?||#||%|
|1 Definitely voting||797||97%|
|2 Probably vote||24||3%|
|1 18 to 35||12||1%|
|2 36 to 45||16||2%|
|3 46 to 54||63||8%|
|4 55 to 64||140||17%|
|5 65 or older||590||72%|
|1 African American||24||3%|
|2 Caucasian or White||782||95%|
|Q5 Which candidate do you plan to support?||#||%|
|1 Thad Cochran||392||48%|
|2 Chris McDaniel||365||44%|
|Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff? Q3: Gender|
|1 Thad Cochran||46%||49%||48%|
|2 Chris McDaniel||48%||42%||44%|
|Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff?: Q4 Age|
|Q6 Support||1 18 to 35||2 36 to 45||3 46 to 54||4 55 to 64||5 65 or older||Grand Total|
|1 Thad Cochran||58%||56%||37%||50%||48%||48%|
|2 Chris McDaniel||42%||44%||60%||44%||43%||44%|
|Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff?: CD|
|Q6 Support||001||002||003||004||Grand Total|
|1 Thad Cochran||47%||58%||56%||35%||48%|
|2 Chris McDaniel||42%||35%||38%||57%||44%|
|18 to 45||21%||9.9%||11.1%|
|46 to 54||20%||9.4%||10.6%|
|55 to 64||23%||10.8%||12.2%|
|65 or older||36%||16.9%||19.1%|
[Intro] Hello, this is XXXXXXXX, a national survey firm calling with a one minute survey about the US Senate Race in Mississippi. I’d like to ask you a few short questions and get you to use your telephone keypad to respond.
Q1. Earlier this month Mississippi held its Republican Primary election for US Senate. Did you get a chance to vote in the Republican Primary for US Senate?
- Press 1 for Yes
- Press 2 for NO Go to END CALL
- Press 3 if you cannot remember Go to END CALL
Q2. Thanks. What about your plans to vote in the runoff for the Republican Primary election for US Senate on June 24th? Are you definitely voting, probably voting, probably not voting, or are you unsure?
- Press 1 if you are definitely voting in the June 24th Republican Primary runoff for US Senate
- Press 2 if you will probably vote
- Press 3 if you will probably not vote Go to END CALL
- Press 4 if you are unsure. Go to END CALL
Q3. Great. I’d like to ask you just a couple more questions. And just to make sure we get a good cross section of Mississippi Republican voters, can you tell us your gender?
- Press 1 for Male
- Press 2 for Female
Q4. Thanks. Now please tell us your age range.
- Press 1 if you are 18 to 35 years
- Press 2 if you are 36 to 45 years
- Press 3 if you are 46 to 54 years
- Press 4 if you are 55 to 64 years
- Or press 5 if you are 65 or older
Q5. Thanks. For statistical purposes only, please tell us your ethnicity.
- Press 1 for African American
- Press 2 for Caucasian or White
- Press 3 for some other ethnicity
Q6. Thanks. Last Question. Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff between Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel?
- Press 1 for Thad Cochran
- Press 3 for Chris McDaniel
- Press 4 if you are undecided