MS US Senate GOP Primary - Election Day Observations

Last evening we conducted an Election Eve survey of likely GOP primary voters in Mississippi.* We used the same survey instrument as was reported on 5/30. While the numbers changed slightly over the weekend, the race is still TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

If history is a guide, rarely do incumbents polling consistently below 50% beat back a primary challenge. But then there is no precedent for the nursing home video scandal.

Here Are the Unknowns as We See the Race

  • White Democratic crossover vote? Will NE Mississippi voters who traditionally vote in the Democratic primary move to the GOP race? If so, McDaniel benefits.
  • Will Infrequent GOP Primary Voters Show Up? To what extent will we see at the polls white voters in the Delta, NE Jackson, Madison and Rankin Counties who are rarely GOP primary participants but solid votes for Cochran in the general election?
  • Age Mix of the GOP Primary? All our research says the younger the average voter, the better for McDaniel.
  • African American Participation in the GOP Primary? We are all too familiar with Republicans’ dubious tactics to suppress minority vote. It is ironic to see Cochran’s supporters employed in minority voter outreach. Will they get traction?
  • Which campaign did the better job in DeSoto County? The deluge of attack ads we witnessed in central Mississippi was not as intense in the Memphis media market. Which candidate had the better ground game in this important GOP stronghold?
  • Will the Cochran strength on the Gulf Coast and with the Country Club Republicans in metro Jackson trump McDaniel’s Piney Woods support?

*The survey sample size was 832 completes for a MOE of +/- 3.4%.  Contact me if you want the full survey results, which include the weighted candidate support questions, unweighted top lines and the various cross tabs. We will not be releasing this to the general public before polls close today.

This information was generated solely at the direction and expense of Chism Strategies without input from any candidate or campaign committee.  


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