More On Our MS US Senate GOP Primary Survey

For those who want to get behind the numbers, here’s a report on how each age group tracked over the past three weeks in the MS GOP Senate Primary.

In response to numerous questions about our research into the Mississippi GOP Senate Primary, we have prepared the following charts that illustrate our tracking surveys. We’ve broken down responses by age grouping. The charts below show the candidate support at each stage in the process. Find the original survey here. 

US Senator Cochran has led with senior GOP voters since the news of the first arrest in the nursing home video scandal. 

State Senator McDaniel lost support among GOP voters ages 55 to 64 in the days following the initial news reports but regained the lead shortly thereafter. The gap has narrowed in recent waves of surveys.

State Senator McDaniel’s dip in support among the 46 to 54 age group of voters was more sustained but by May 29th had almost recovered to pre-scandal levels.

Younger voters have consistently favored State Senator McDaniel over Senator Cochran.

Key Lessons from the Data

As we noted in our earlier analysis, the outcome of this race will be determined largely by the age mix of the Republican Primary voters—the older the electorate, the better for Senator Cochran.

The nursing home video arrests very clearly stalled Senator McDaniel’s advance in this race.

Senator McDaniel’s campaign had regained its footing as of last Friday.

Nothing in these charts changes our earlier observation that this race was too close to call before the final weekend campaigning.
 
Notes:

  1. These surveys include only land line phones.
  2. These surveys have a three part screen for GOP primary voter participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant to self identify partisanship and excluded all Democrats and lean-Democrats. We then screened for probability of voting in the GOP June primary.
  3. Survey sample sizes were as noted below.
    • Date(s)                                    Surveys
    • May 13-14                               501
    • May 16                                    254
    • May 19-20                               256
    • May 22                                    250
    • May 24                                    263
    • May 26                                    259
    • May 29                                    818
  4. The subsamples by age group vary from wave to wave. With younger voters, we caution the reader to consider the trend lines of the data rather than immediate shift from one survey date to the next.
  5. This information was generated solely at the direction and expense of Chism Strategies without input from any candidate or campaign committee.

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Leave a Comment

Sign up for Email Updates