Latest Survey of Public Opinion on US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

Thursday evening (June 5th) we conducted a statewide survey of GOP primary voters in Mississippi. We asked an equal number of Cochran and McDaniel supporters from the June 3rd Primary about their plans to vote in the runoff election, which candidate they planned to support and which candidate they thought would win. We surveyed 832 households with a MOE of +/-3.3%

Major Findings

  • At this point in the race, supporters of both candidates are energized and optimistic. 
    • Equal percentages plan to return to the polls for the runoff.
    • Equal percentages believe their candidate will win.
  • A weighted calculation of survey results shows McDaniel has a 3.0% lead over Cochran. This lead is within the survey’s margin of error.
Which candidate do you plan to support?
Thad Cochran 47.6%
Chris McDaniel 50.6%
Undecided 1.8%
Grand Total 100.0%

Important Points to Remember:

  • Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results. The candidate support totals noted above are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%.
  • The race is fluid and the election is more than two weeks away. In this unusual campaign, we don’t know if and when another bombshell will drop and how it would impact voters.
  • We surveyed only voters who participated in the June 3rd GOP primary. Mississippi law allows for anyone who didn’t vote in the June 3rd Democratic Primary to vote in the GOP Primary runoff.

Other Notes:

  1. These surveys include only landline phones.
  2. These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s)he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked which candidate they had supported and continued the survey for only those who had cast their ballots for Cochran or McDaniel.
  3. The sample is 96% Caucasian, 2% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The survey oversamples women and older voters with weighting to produce more reliable results. 

The charts below are unweighted responses. We caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic groups with a small subsample number. (Minority voters and all voters under age 45). 

Unweighted Toplines

Did you vote in the Republican Primary?
Q1 Primary # %
1 Yes 864 100%
Grand Total 864 100%
In politics, how do you describe yourself?
Q2 Party # %
3 Completely Independent 91 11%
4 Leaning Republican 221 26%
5 Mostly Republican 552 64%
Grand Total 864 100%
What is your age range?
Q3 Age # %
1 18 to 35 8 1%
2 36 to 45 23 3%
3 46 to 54 60 7%
4 55 to 64 172 20%
5 65 or older 601 70%
Grand Total 864 100%
What is your ethnicity?
Q4 Ethnicity # %
1 African American 16 2%
2 Caucasian or White 830 96%
3 Other 18 2%
Grand Total 864 100%
What is your gender?
Q5 Gender # %
1 Male 363 42%
2 Female 501 58%
Grand Total 864 100%
Which candidate did you support in the primary?
Q6 Primary Vote # %
2 Thad Cochran 432 50%
3 Chris McDaniel 432 50%
Grand Total 864 100%
How likely are you to vote in the runoff?
Q7 Voting Runoff # %
1 Definitely voting 840 97%
2 Probably vote 18 2%
3 Probably not vote 3 0%
4 Unsure 3 0%
Grand Total 864 100%
Which candidate do you plan to support?
Q8 Runoff Horserace # %
1 Thad Cochran 423 49%
2 Chris McDaniel 411 48%
3 Undecided 24 3%
Grand Total 858 100%
Who do you think will win?
Q9 Who will win? # %
1 Thad Cochran 430 50%
2 Chris McDaniel 434  50%
Grand Total 864 100%

Unweighted Crosstabs – By vote cast

Did you vote in the Republican Primary?
% Q6 Primary Vote    
Q1 Primary 2 Thad Cochran 3 Chris McDaniel Grand Total
1 Yes 100% 100% 100%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%
In politics, how do you describe yourself?
% Q6 Primary Vote    
Q2 Party 2 Thad Cochran 3 Chris McDaniel Grand Total
3 Completely Independent 11% 10% 11%
4 Leaning Republican 23% 28% 26%
5 Mostly Republican 66% 62% 64%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%
What is your age range?
% Q6 Primary Vote    
Q03 Age 2 Thad Cochran 3 Chris McDaniel Grand Total
1 18 to 35 1% 0% 1%
2 36 to 45 2% 3% 3%
3 46 to 54 6% 8% 7% 
4 55 to 64 19% 21% 20%
5 65 or older  72%  67% 70% 
Grand Total 100%  100%  100% 
What is your ethnicity?
% Q6 Primary Vote    
Q4 Ethnicity 2 Thad Cochran 3 Chris McDaniel Grand Total
1 African American 2% 2% 2%
2 Caucasian or White 97% 96% 96%
3 Other 2% 3% 2%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%
What is your gender?
% Q6 Primary Vote    
Q5 Gender 2 Thad Cochran 3 Chris McDaniel Grand Total
1 Male 38% 46% 42%
2 Female 62% 54% 58%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?
Q7 Voting Runoff 98% 97% 97%
2 Probably vote 2% 2% 2%
3 Probably not vote 0% 0% 0%
4 Unsure 0% 0% 0%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%
Which candidate do you plan to support?
Q8 Runoff Horserace 2 Thad Cochran 3 Chris McDaniel Grand Total
1 Thad Cochran 96% 2% 49%
2 Chris McDaniel 1% 95% 48%
3 Undecided 3% 3% 3%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%
Who do you think will win?
Q9 Who will win? 2 Thad Cochran 3 Chris McDaniel Grand Total
1 Thad Cochran 93% 6% 50%
2 Chris McDaniel 7% 94% 50%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%

Crosstabs – By gender

Which candidate did you support in the primary?
% Q5 Gender    
Q6 Primary Vote 1 Male 2 Female Grand Total
2 Thad Cochran 45% 53% 50%
3 Chris McDaniel 55% 47% 50%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%

<td?100%

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?
% Q5 Gender    
Q7 Voting Runoff 1 Male 2 Female Grand Total
1 Definitely voting 98% 97% 97%
2 Probably vote 2% 2% 2%
3 Probably not vote 0% 0% 0%
4 Unsure 0% 0% 0%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100%
Which candidate do you plan to support?
  %   Q5 Gender      
  Q8 Runoff Horserace   1 Male 2 Female Grand Total  
  1 Thad Cochran 46% 52% 49%  
  2 Chris McDaniel 52% 45%  
  3 Undecided 2% 3% 3%  
  Grand Total 100% 100% 100%

% Q5 Gender   

Who do you think will win?
  Q9 Who will win?   1 Male 2 Female Grand Total  
  1 Thad Cochran 46% 53% 50%  

 

2 Chris McDaniel

54%

47%

50%

 

 

Grand Total

 

100%

100%

100%

 

 

Crosstabs – By partisan identity 

Which candidate did you support in the primary?

 

%

Q2 Party

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

 

 

 

Q6 Primary Vote

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 

 

2 Thad Cochran

53%

45%

52%

50%

 

 

3 Chris McDaniel

47%

55%

48%

50%

 

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

 

 

 

%

Q2 Party

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

 

 

 

Q7 Voting Runoff

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 

 

1 Definitely voting

99%

95%

98%

97%

 

 

2 Probably vote

1%

4%

2%

2%

 

 

3 Probably not vote

0%

0%

1%

0%

 

 

4 Unsure

0%

1%

0%

0%

 

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which candidate do you plan to support?

 

 

 

%

Q2 Party

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

 

 

 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 

 

1 Thad Cochran

53%

43%

51%

49%

 

 

2 Chris McDaniel

45%

53%

46%

48%

 

 

3 Undecided

2%

4%

3%

3%

 

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win?

 

 

 

 

%

Q2 Party

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

 

 

 

Q9 Who will win?

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 

 

1 Thad Cochran

53%

46%

51%

50%

 

 

2 Chris McDaniel

47%

54%

49%

50%

 

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

Crosstabs – By ethnicity

Which candidate did you support in the primary?

 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

 

 

 

 

 

1 African

2 Caucasian or

 

 

 

Q6 Primary Vote

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

2 Thad Cochran

50%

50%

39%

50%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

50%

50%

61%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

 

 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

 

 

 

 

 

1 African

2 Caucasian or

 

 

 

Q7 Voting Runoff

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

1 Definitely voting

94%

97%

100%

97%

 

2 Probably vote

0%

2%

0%

2%

 

3 Probably not vote

6%

0%

0%

0%

 

4 Unsure

0%

0%

0%

0%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which candidate do you plan to support?

 

 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

 

 

 

 

 

1 African

2 Caucasian or

 

 

 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

53%

49%

44%

49%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

47%

48%

56%

48%

 

3 Undecided

0%

3%

0%

3%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win?

 

 

 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

 

 

 

 

 

1 African

2 Caucasian or

 

 

 

Q9 Who will win?

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

56%

50%

39%

50%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

44%

50%

61%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

Crosstabs – By age

Which candidate did you support in the primary?

 

%

Q03 Age

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q6 Primary Vote

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

2 Thad Cochran

75%

35%

45%

47%

52%

50%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

25%

65%

55%

53%

48%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

 

 

 

%

Q03 Age

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q7 Voting Runoff

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Definitely voting

88%

96%

98%

98%

97%

97%

 

2 Probably vote

0%

0%

2%

2%

2%

2%

 

3 Probably not vote

13%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

 

4 Unsure

0%

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which candidate do you plan to support?

 

 

 

%

Q03 Age

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

71%

32%

47%

47%

51%

49%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

29%

68%

53%

51%

46%

48%

 

3 Undecided

0%

0%

0%

1%

4%

3%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win?

 

 

 

%

Q03 Age

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q9 Who will win?

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

75%

39%

47%

47%

51%

50%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

25%

61%

53%

53%

49%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%


Survey Instrument after the Screening and Demographics Questions.

Q6. Which candidate did you support in the June 3rd US Senate Republican Primary? The candidates were Thomas Carey, Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel.

  1. Press 1 for Thomas Carey (Terminate Survey)
  2. Press 2 for Thad Cochran
  3. Press 3 for Chris McDaniel
  4. Press 4 if you cannot remember (Terminate Survey)

Q7. How likely are you to vote in the runoff for the Republican Primary election for US Senate on June 24th? Are you definitely voting in the Republican primary runoff, probably voting, probably not voting or are you unsure?

  1. Press 1 if you are definitely voting in the June 24th Republican Primary runoff for US Senate
  2. Press 2 if you will probably vote
  3. Press 3 if you will probably not vote (Go to Q9)
  4. Press 4 if you are unsure (Go to Q9)

Q8. Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff between Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel?

  1. Press 1 for Thad Cochran
  2. Press 2 for Chris McDaniel
  3. Press 3 if you are undecided 

Q9. Regardless of which candidate you support, who do you think will actually win the race on June 24th, Thad Cochran or Chris McDaniel?

  1. Press 1 for Thad Cochran
  2. Press 2 for Chris McDaniel

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Leave a Comment

Request A Quote

Ready to start working with us?