Important Survey on Mississippi US Senate GOP Primary

 Important Survey on US Senate GOP Primary

 

 Chism Strategies Survey in MS GOP Senate Primary:

Undecideds Disgusted With Both Campaigns In Race Too Close to Call

 

 

Last evening we conducted an IVR survey of likely GOP primary voters in Mississippi. The sample size was 813 completes for a MOE of +/- 3.4%. The weighted candidate support results are noted below. On the next page are highlights from the Undecided voter responses. Tabulations begin on the following pages. The survey instrument follows at the end.

 

 

Candidate

Support

Thomas Carey

1.4%

Thad Cochran

44.3%

Chris McDaniel 

46.4%

Undecided

7.9%

Total

100.0%

 

 

Initial Observations
   •McDaniels numbers have recovered after the initial drop in the wake of the arrests of

campaign supporters.

   o Our earlier tracking surveys showed McDaniel leading Cochran within the margin of error before the scandal broke.

 

  • This race is too close to project a winner.
   o The differences in support numbers are within the margin of error.
   o Because of the significant differentials in candidate support by age group, the turnout mix

will impact the final tallies--the younger the mix, the better for McDaniel.

   o Because Mississippi doesn’t conduct closed primaries and the Democratic primary is not

heavily contested, projecting the ideological mix of the turnout is difficult--the more

Democrats who cross over, the better for Cochran.
   o 81% of the remaining Undecideds say that the “scandals” of both camps are equally bad.

 

 

Notes:

1. These surveys include only land line phones.
2. These surveys have a three part screen for GOP primary voter participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant to self identify partisanship and excluded all Democrats and lean-Democrats. We then screened for probability of voting in the GOP June primary.
3. The sample is 92% Caucasian. The initial survey tabulations over sample women and older voters. We adjusted for anticipated turnout of 52% women, votes under age 45 at 21% voters; age 45 to 54 at 20%; voters age 55 to 64 at 23% and voters ages 65+ at 36%. The weighted candidate support total at the top of this page reflects these percentages.
4. We caution against drawing sweeping
 conclusions from the subsamples because of the smaller sizes of some of them.

 

 

This information was generated solely at the direction and expense of Chism Strategies without input from any candidate or campaign committee.

 

 

Brad Chism

601.918.4563

www.chismstrategies.com

 


                              
                                  1

 


 

 


 Responses from Undecided Respondents

 

Volunteer supporters of Senate candidate Chris McDaniel were arrested for entering a nursing home where Senator

Cochran’s wife now lives, taking pictures and video of her, and posting them on the Internet. Chris McDaniel condemned this act and so far no one has produced evidence that his campaign was involved in planning or staging this act. Overall, how does this information impact the likelihood that you will support Chris McDaniel? Would you be much less likely to support McDaniel, somewhat less likely, or would it have no impact on your decision to support McDaniel?

How does McDaniel story impact how likely you are to support him?

1

Much less likely

17%

2

Somewhat less likely

17%

3

No impact

67%

Grand Total

100%

 

Official government records show that Senator Cochran’s female executive assistant has traveled with him to 42 different countries at a cost of more than $150,000 to taxpayers. Cochran has said that he rents a basement apartment from her in the same house where she lives on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Senator Cochran insists his relationship with this employee of more than 30 years is entirely professional. Overall, how does this information impact the likelihood that you will support Thad Cochran? Would you be much less likely to support Cochran, somewhat less likely, or would it have no impact on your decision to support Cochran?

How does Cochran story impact how likely you are to support him?

1

Much less likely

17%

2

Somewhat less likely

24%

3

No impact

60%

Grand Total

100%

 

There is the McDaniel campaign story involving a volunteer supporter who invaded the privacy of an elderly nursing home patient who is suffering from dementia. And there is the Cochran campaign story of an inappropriate relationship with a female staffer at taxpayer expense. Which is worse from your point of view?

Which story is worse?

1

McDaniel story

10%

2

Cochran story

10%

3

Equally bad

81%

Grand Total

100%

 

Now that you’ve heard about both sets of news stories, please tell us how you plan to vote on Tuesday. Remember the candidates are Thomas Carey, Thad Cochran, and Chris McDaniel. Which of these candidates would you support, or have you decided not to vote for anyone.

After hearing the stories, which candidate will you support?

1

Thomas Carey

5%

2

Thad Cochran

0%

3

Chris McDaniel

10%

4

Undecided

83%

5 Noone

2%

Grand Total

100%

                

   2

 

  


 

Unweighted TopLines

 

In politics, how do you describe yourself?

 
 

Q01 Party

#

%

 

3 Completely Independent

109

13%

 

4 Leaning Republican

195

24%

 

5 Mostly Republican

515

63%

 

Grand Total

819

100%

How likely are you to vote in the Republican Primary?

 

Q02 Vote

#

%

 

1 Definitely voting

794

97%

 

2 Probably voting

25

3%

 

Grand Total

819

100%

       
   

What is your age range?

 
 

Q03 Age

#

%

 

1 18 to 35

14

2%

 

2 36 to 45

31

4%

 

3 46 to 54

79

10%

 

4 55 to 64

131

16%

 

5 65 or older

564

69%

 

Grand Total

819

100%

       
   

What is your ethnicity?

 
 

Q04 Ethnicity

#

%

 

1 Asian

14

2%

 

2 African American

15

2%

 

3 Caucasian

756

92%

 

4 Latino

11

1%

 

5 Other

23

3%

 

Grand Total

819

100%

       
   

What is your gender?

 
 

Q05 Gender

#

%

 

1 Male

404

49%

 

2 Female

415

51%

 

Grand Total

819

100%


3

 


 

If the election were today, which candidate would you

   

support for U.S. Senate?

 
 

Q06 Support

#

%

 

1 Thomas Carey

9

1%

 

2 Thad Cochran

391

48%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

348

42%

 

4 Undecided

71

9%

 

Grand Total

819

100%

       
 

Q06 Support

1 Thomas Carey

 
 

How certain are you of your support for Thomas Carey?

 

Q07 Certainty

#

%

 

1 Very sure

7

78%

 

2 Somewhat sure

1

11%

 

3 Not very sure

1

11%

 

Grand Total

9

100%

       
 

Q06 Support

2 Thad Cochran

 
 

How certain are you of your support for Thad Cochran?

 

Q07 Certainty

#

%

 

1 Very sure

357

91%

 

2 Somewhat sure

26

7%

 

3 Not very sure

8

2%

 

Grand Total

391

100%

       
 

Q06 Support

3 Chris McDaniel

 
 

How certain are you of your support for Chris McDaniel?

 

Q07 Certainty

#

%

 

1 Very sure

185

92%

 

2 Somewhat sure

16

8%

 

3 Not very sure

1

0%

 

Grand Total

202

100%

     
 

Toward which candidate are you leaning?

 
 

Q08 Leaning

#

%

 

1 Thomas Carey

2

3%

 

2 Thad Cochran

13

18%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

14

20%

 

4 Undecided

42

59%

 

Grand Total

71

100%


4

 



How does McDaniel story impact how likely you are to support him?

 

Q09 McDaniel

#

%

 

1 Much less likely

109

26%

 

2 Somewhat less likely

40

10%

 

3 No impact

266

64%

 

Grand Total

415

100%

How does Cochran story impact how likely you are to support him?

 

Q10 Cochran

#

%

 

1 Much less likely

88

21%

 

2 Somewhat less likely

51

12%

 

3 No impact

276

67%

 

Grand Total

415

100%

     
 

Which story is worse?

 
 

Q11 Worse

#

%

 

1 McDaniel story

127

31%

 

2 Cochran story

112

27%

 

3 Equally bad

176

42%

 

Grand Total

415

100%

After hearing the stories, which candidate will you support?

 

Q12 Follow-up

#

%

 

1 Thomas Carey

6

1%

 

2 Thad Cochran

185

45%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

168

40%

 

4 Undecided

54

13%

 

5 Will not support any candidat

2

0%

 

Grand Total

415

100%

       
 

Q06 Support

4 Undecided

 
 

Which story is worse?

 
 

Q11 Worse

#

%

 

1 McDaniel story

4

10%

 

2 Cochran story

4

10%

 

3 Equally bad

34

81%

 

Grand Total

42

100%




 


 

In politics, how do you describe yourself?

 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q01 Party

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 

3 Completely Independ

17%

10%

13%

 

4 Leaning Republican

25%

23%

24%

 

5 Mostly Republican

59%

67%

63%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

How likely are you to vote in the Republican Primary?

 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q02 Vote

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 

1 Definitely voting

97%

97%

97%

 

2 Probably voting

3%

3%

3%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

If the election were today, which candidate would you support for U.S. Senate?

 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q06 Support

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 

1 Thomas Carey

1%

1%

1%

 

2 Thad Cochran

47%

48%

48%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

45%

40%

42%

 

4 Undecided

7%

10%

9%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

         
 

Q06 Support

1 Thomas Carey

   
 

How certain are you of your support for Thomas Carey?

 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q07 Certainty

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 

1 Very sure

100%

60%

78%

 

2 Somewhat sure

0%

20%

11%

 

3 Not very sure

0%

20%

11%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

         
 

Q06 Support

2 Thad Cochran

   
 

How certain are you of your support for Thad Cochran?

 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q07 Certainty

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 

1 Very sure

91%

92%

91%

 

2 Somewhat sure

6%

7%

7%

 

3 Not very sure

3%

2%

2%


6

 


 

Q06 Support

3 Chris McDaniel

   
 

How certain are you of your support for Chris McDaniel?

 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q07 Certainty

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 

1 Very sure

94%

90%

92%

 

2 Somewhat sure

5%

10%

8%

 

3 Not very sure

1%

0%

0%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

     
 

Toward which candidate are you leaning?

 
 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q08 Leaning

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 

1 Thomas Carey

13%

11%

11%

 

2 Thad Cochran

20%

16%

17%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

20%

21%

21%

 

4 Undecided

47%

53%

51%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

     
 

How does McDaniel story impact how likely you are to

 
   

support him?

   
 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q09 McDaniel

2 Female

Grand Total

 
 

1 Much less likely

26%

26%

 
 

2 Somewhat less likely

10%

10%

 
 

3 No impact

64%

64%

 
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

 
     
 

How does Cochran story impact how likely you are to

 
   

support him?

   
 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q10 Cochran

2 Female

Grand Total

 
 

1 Much less likely

21%

21%

 
 

2 Somewhat less likely

12%

12%

 
 

3 No impact

67%

67%

 
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

 
       
 

Which story is worse?

   
 

%

Q05 Gender

   
 

Q11 Worse

2 Female

Grand Total

 
 

1 McDaniel story

31%

31%

 
 

2 Cochran story

27%

27%

 
 

3 Equally bad

42%

42%

 
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

 


7


After hearing the stories, which candidate will you support?

 

%

Q05 Gender

 
 

Q12 Follow-up

2 Female

Grand Total

 

1 Thomas Carey

1%

1%

 

2 Thad Cochran

45%

45%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

40%

40%

 

4 Undecided

13%

13%

 

5 Will not support any c

0%

0%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%


8

 

 


 

     

In politics, how do you describe yourself?

   
 

%

Q03 Age

         
 

Q01 Party

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

3 Completely Ind

14%

26%

22%

13%

12%

13%

 

4 Leaning Republi

21%

16%

18%

25%

25%

24%

 

5 Mostly Republic

64%

58%

61%

62%

64%

63%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

           
     

How likely are you to vote in the Republican Primary?

   
 

%

Q03 Age

         
 

Q02 Vote

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Definitely votin

100%

97%

96%

99%

96%

97%

 

2 Probably voting

0%

3%

4%

1%

4%

3%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

If the election were today, which candidate would you support for U.S. Senate?

 

%

Q03 Age

           
 

Q06 Support

1 18 to 35

 

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Thomas Carey

0%

3%

0%

1%

1%

1%

 

2 Thad Cochran

50%

35%

39%

40%

51%

48%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

43%

55%

52%

46%

40%

42%

 

4 Undecided

7%

6%

9%

14%

8%

9%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

                 
 

Q06 Support

1 Thomas Carey

           
     

How certain are you of your support for Thomas Carey?

   
 

%

Q03 Age

           
 

Q07 Certainty

2 36 to 45

 

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

   
 

1 Very sure

0%

100%

86%

78%

   
 

2 Somewhat sure

100%

0%

0%

11%

   
 

3 Not very sure

0%

0%

14%

11%

   
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

   


9

 


 


 

Q06 Support

2 Thad Cochran

         
   

How certain are you of your support for Thad Cochran?

   

%

Q03 Age

         

Q07 Certainty

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

1 Very sure

100%

91%

90%

96%

90%

91%

2 Somewhat sure

0%

0%

10%

4%

7%

7%

3 Not very sure

0%

9%

0%

0%

2%

2%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

             

Q06 Support

3 Chris McDaniel

         
   

How certain are you of your support for Chris McDaniel?

   

%

Q03 Age

         

Q07 Certainty

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

1 Very sure

83%

82%

83%

87%

88%

87%

2 Somewhat sure

17%

18%

15%

13%

10%

12%

3 Not very sure

0%

0%

2%

0%

2%

1%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

         
   

Toward which candidate are you leaning?

   

%

Q03 Age

         

Q08 Leaning

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

1 Thomas Carey

0%

0%

14%

0%

2%

3%

2 Thad Cochran

0%

0%

29%

22%

16%

18%

3 Chris McDaniel

100%

50%

14%

11%

21%

20%

4 Undecided

0%

50%

43%

67%

60%

59%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%


10  

 

 

 


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