Election Day Score Card: US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

Election Day Score Card

Our polls and others suggest McDaniel leads comfortably among frequent GOP primary voters. But we have seen an unprecedented appeal by the Cochran team to expand the electorate. And we are reminded of the Cantor Rule that GOP primaries are notoriously unpredictable. We offer these notes on the June 3rd results and some hints on where to look in handicapping Tuesday’s runoff.

June 3rd Recap    

The Metro vs. The Free State of Jones  Cochran’s edge in Jackson and its bedroom communities (18% of the total turnout) was more than offset by the landslide victory McDaniel managed in his home of Jones County.

Opposite Ends of the State  McDaniel’s edge in DeSoto County’s Memphis suburbs was greater than Cochran’s vote lead on the Gulf Coast.

Local Boy vs. Elder Statesman  McDaniel’s heavy margins in the counties contiguous to Jones (which comprised about 11% of the electorate) greatly surpassed the totals that Cochran posted in university and non coastal military communities.

The Expected and the Outliers  The Delta went heavy for Cochran as did most other small counties. But the big McDaniel margin in Pearl River County — a New Orleans bedroom community — cut into those margins.

Counties to Watch

Rankin. Can the Governor do better than a tie in his own back yard? 

Hinds. 
Team Cochran anxiously asks “Scooby Do, Where are You?” Watch the large, heavy Black precincts for clues.

Jones. Can anybody achieve back-to-back wins with 85% of the vote?

DeSoto. Can the Cochran ground game cut the 25% margin loss from the Primary?

Jackson. Can McDaniel hold onto the slight edge from the Primary after all the Doomsday messaging about the shipyards?

Forrest. McDaniel won this university community near his state senate district by 10% before the deluge of TV and online attack ads about his threats to education funding.

Washington. How much more than the 850 vote lead from June 3rd will this big Delta county supply for Cochran? And is this a pattern in farm country?

Pearl RiverWith no 4th CD runoff, will McDaniel’s 2,500 lead there fade?

June 3rd Turnout By Size

     

6/3 GOP

% GOP

County

Note

Cochran lead/deficit

Turnout

Primary

Rankin

Metro Jxn

387

24,656

7.9%

Harrison

Gulf Coast

3,633

23,578

7.5%

Jackson

Gulf Coast

(296)

18,409

5.9%

Hinds

Metro Jxn

5,307

16,640

5.3%

Madison

Metro Jxn

3,415

14,864

4.7%

DeSoto

Mphs suburbs

(3,904)

14,432

4.6%

Jones

McDaniel home

(9,209)

12,967

4.1%

Lamar

McDaniel base

(1,912)

10,183

3.2%

Forrest

McDaniel base

(949)

9,743

3.1%

Lee

NE

1,311

9,000

2.9%

Lauderdale

E Central

1,062

8,854

2.8%

Hancock

Gulf Coast

410

7,111

2.3%

Pearl River

NOLA bedroom

(2,478)

6,967

2.2%

Lowndes

E Central

1,042

5,389

1.7%

Lincoln

SW

432

4,480

1.4%

Warren

River County

424

4,468

1.4%

Lafayette

Univ: Ole Miss

1,280

4,342

1.4%

Oktibbeha

Univ: MSU

1,400

4,134

1.3%

George

South

(987)

3,756

1.2%

Marion

South

(1,092)

3,512

1.1%

Pike

SW

101

3,506

1.1%

Pontotoc

NE

150

3,458

1.1%

Monroe

NE

184

3,450

1.1%

Simpson

South Central

149

3,341

1.1%

Union

NE

398

2,890

0.9%

Neshoba

E Central

172

2,873

0.9%

Stone

South

(153)

2,767

0.9%

Wayne

McDaniel base

(1,517)

2,758

0.9%

Adams

River County

273

2,727

0.9%

Copiah

SW

86

2,675

0.9%

Newton

E Central

70

2,626

0.8%

Smith

McDaniel base

(995)

2,613

0.8%

Itawamba

NE

(68)

2,602

0.8%

Alcorn

NE

138

2,601

0.8%

Covington

South

(1,125)

2,564

0.8%

Jasper

McDaniel base

(1,015)

2,322

0.7%

Panola

NW

79

2,304

0.7%

Clarke

McDaniel base

(328)

2,195

0.7%

Scott

E Central

11

2,147

0.7%

Yazoo

Delta

235

2,122

0.7%

Marshall

Mphs suburbs

(364)

2,119

0.7%

 

     

6/3 GOP

% GOP

County

Note

 

Cochran lead/deficit

Turnout

Primary

Washington

Delta

849

2,077

0.7%

Tippah

NE

13

2,056

0.7%

Perry

McDaniel base

(491)

1,945

0.6%

Attala

N Central

(134)

1,900

0.6%

Bolivar

Delta

689

1,865

0.6%

Grenada

N Central

(67)

1,831

0.6%

Tishomingo

NE

(73)

1,762

0.6%

Clay

E Central

468

1,712

0.5%

Leake

N. Central

122

1,661

0.5%

Winston

N Central

178

1,659

0.5%

Prentiss

NE

184

1,633

0.5%

Amite

SW

(380)

1,607

0.5%

Webster

NE

57

1,598

0.5%

Lawrence

SW

(44)

1,563

0.5%

Leflore

Delta

782

1,555

0.5%

Calhoun

NE

136

1,443

0.5%

Greene

South

(565)

1,434

0.5%

Walthall

SW

(40)

1,391

0.4%

Carroll

Delta

104

1,346

0.4%

Chickasaw

NE

131

1,319

0.4%

Choctaw

NE

(46)

1,211

0.4%

Franklin

SW

(166)

1,191

0.4%

Yalobusha

Delta

35

1,139

0.4%

Sunflower

Delta

413

1,135

0.4%

Jeff Davis

McDaniel base

(228)

1,103

0.4%

Montgomery

N Central

4

1,054

0.3%

Coahoma

Delta

313

916

0.3%

Kemper

E Central

80

752

0.2%

Tallahatchie

Delta

204

707

0.2%

Holmes

Delta

108

625

0.2%

Noxubee

E Central

64

610

0.2%

Humphreys

Delta

210

572

0.2%

Benton

NW

(20)

462

0.1%

Sharkey

Delta

234

407

0.1%

Wilkinson

SW

(45)

367

0.1%

Quitman

Delta

86

349

0.1%

Tunica

Delta

149

324

0.1%

Claiborne

River County

49

273

0.1%

Jefferson

River County

26

219

0.1%

Issaquena

Delta

55

129

0.0%


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