Confirming Our US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff Projections -- Beyond the Numbers: Always Read the Polling Memo:


Beyond the Numbers: Always Read the Polling Memo:

This FiveThirtyEight analysis shows that last night’s election results confirm our survey projections among traditional GOP vote. And each of our survey memos always noted that that we could not project crossover Democratic vote. Our philosophy has always been give you our best analysis, admit what we don’t know, and encourage good minds to weigh in. Yesterday’s election results affirm this approach:

"Without an increase in vote from Democratic-leaning, African-American counties, Cochran would have lost by ~8% (Chism Strategies projected McDaniel 52-44).

The result: Cochran loses a lot of votes. Instead of Cochran winning the runoff by 2 points, or about 6,000 votes, he loses by a little less than 8 points, or about 25,000 votes. He drops about 40,000 votes from his 190,000 vote total, while McDaniel loses only about 15,000 from his 185,000 vote total. You can see this phenomenon in the chart below. It shows how much Cochran’s vote percentage against McDaniel would drop in each of Mississippi’s 82 counties (each county is one dot) if we keep black turnout on the county level the same from the first round of the primary to the runoff: "

Read FiveThirtyEight's full analysis here


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