Newly Released MEMO: Final Track of the ​US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

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Newly Released MEMO: Final Track of the ​US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff
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To:   Interested Parties

From:        Brad Chism

Date:         June 21, 2014  

Re: US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff



Last night we conducted the final track of our MS Senate GOP runoff surveys. We surveyed 697 voters statewide. The MOE (margin of error) was +/- 3.8%.  The survey was restricted to voters from the GOP primary on June 3rd. It does not include potential voters who did not participate in that election.


McDaniel holds an eight point lead among GOP voters who went to the polls on June 3rd and plan to return on Tuesday.  







How We See It


Unless Cochran expands the electorate with general election Republicans and crossover Democrats, McDaniel wins.


The electoral math is much closer than the polling. Cochran heads into Tuesday only about 6,200 votes down out of a total of almost 319,000 cast on June 3rd. (We assume the third candidate’s supporters do not migrate to Cochran.)



No Polling Can Measure the Implications of Two Unprecedented Actions in Mississippi Politics


          •Surrogates for the 42 year GOP incumbent are groveling for Democrat and union votes in the  

           runoff after his campaign spent millions in the Primary bashing President Obama and his    


      o Can Cochran’s team execute their elaborate, expensive GOTV plan?
      o Will this pivot to a more centrist message erode his conservative base?
 Republican office holders have gotten way out ahead of their constituents
      o Are the establishment Republicans able to bring the rank and file to Cochran?
      o Will there be a backlash from this top down directive?


We look forward to seeing the answers on Tuesday.




Other Notes about the Survey    



1. These surveys include only landline phones.

2. These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s) he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked each participant if (s) he planned to vote in the runoff.


 3. The sample is 95% Caucasian, 3% African American and 2% other ethnicity.  The raw survey data over represents women and older voters.  When reviewing the unweighted results which are shown on the following page we caution against drawing sweeping conclusions of smaller subsamples (younger voters, minorities and those totals by CD.)


4. Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results. The candidate support totals noted below are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%. These are the same assumptions as in previous surveys.




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