New Survey on the US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

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New Survey on the US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff
Unweighted Toplines
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Weighting Assumptions
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To:           Interested Parties

From:      Brad Chism

Date:       June 15, 2014

Re:           US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff



 

Friday evening (June 13th) we conducted a statewide survey of likely Mississippi GOP primary runoff voters. We surveyed only voters who participated in the June 3rd GOP primary. The sample is 821 households with a MOE of +/-3.3%

 

 

A Race Too Close to Call
A weighted calculation of survey results shows the race is essentially even. The Cochran lead of 1% is within the margin of error.




Which candidate do you plan to

support in the June 24th runoff?

Thad Cochran

48%

Chris McDaniel

47%

Undecided

5%

 


Observations
Mississippi law allows anyone who didn’t vote in the June 3rd Democratic Primary to vote in the GOP Primary runoff. However, the Cochran plan to expand the electorate with Democrats is a hard lift— the most likely Democratic voters are ineligible to participate in the runoff.

The real question is: How will Cochran’s new “big D“ Democratic message that there is an essential role for the federal government in the Mississippi economy and society impact turnout?

o Will traditional“general election Republicans”in university towns, the shipyards andmilitary base communities where Cochran underperformed in the primary adequately respond to this appeal?

o Will the reminders about Cochran’s longevity and power in Washington energize McDaniel supporters even more?

 

 

Other Notes:

 

1. These surveys include only landline phones.
2. These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s)he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked each participant if (s)he planned to vote

in the runoff.

3. The sample is 95% Caucasian, 3% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The raw survey data over represents women and older voters.
4.
Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results. The candidate support totals noted above are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%. These are the same assumptions as in previous surveys.  

 

 

 

 
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