Latest Survey of Public Opinion on US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

Article Index
Latest Survey of Public Opinion on US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff
Unweighted Toplines 1
Unweighted Toplines 2
Unweighted Crosstabs – By vote cast 1
Unweighted Crosstabs – By vote cast 2
Crosstabs – By gender
Crosstabs – By partisan identity
Crosstabs – By ethnicity
Crosstabs – By age
Survey Instrument after the Screening and Demographics Questions.
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To:
            Interested Parties

From:     Brad Chism

Date:      June 7, 2014

Re:           US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

 

Thursday evening (June 5th) we conducted a statewide survey of GOP primary voters in Mississippi. We asked an equal number of Cochran and McDaniel supporters from the June 3rd Primary about their plans to vote in the runoff election, which candidate they planned to support and which candidate they thought would win. We surveyed 832 households with a MOE of +/-3.3%


Major Findings:

  • At this point in the race, supporters of both candidates are energized and optimistic.

    o
    Equal percentages plan to return to the polls for the runoff.
    o Equal percentages believe their candidate will win.

  • A weighted calculation of survey results shows McDaniel has a 3.0% lead over Cochran. This lead is within the survey’s margin of error.

Which candidate do you plan to support?

 

Thad Cochran

    47.6%

 

Chris McDaniel

50.6%

 

Undecided

1.8%

 

Grand Total

100.0%

 


Important Points to Remember:

  • Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results.
    The candidate support totals noted above are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%.
  • The race is fluid and the election is more than two weeks away. In this unusual campaign, we don’t know if and when another bombshell will drop and how it would impact voters.
  • We surveyed only voters who participated in the June 3rd GOP primary. Mississippi law allows for anyone who didn’t vote in the June 3rd Democratic Primary to vote in the GOP Primary runoff.


Other Notes:

  1. These surveys include only landline phones.
  2. These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s)he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked which candidate they had supported and continued the survey for only those who had cast their ballots for Cochran or McDaniel.
  3. The sample is 96% Caucasian, 2% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The survey oversamples women and older voters with weighting to produce more reliable results.


 

 

www.chismstrategies.com

 601.982.0231

 



 

The charts below are unweighted responses. We caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from demographic

 

groups with a small subsample number. (Minority voters and all voters under age 45).

 

Unweighted Toplines

 

Did you vote in the Republican Primary?

Q1 Primary

#

%

1 Yes

864

100%

Grand Total

864

100%

In politics, how do you describe yourself?

 

Q2 Party

#

%

 
 

3 Completely Independent

91

11%

 
 

4 Leaning Republican

221

26%

 
 

5 Mostly Republican

552

64%

 
 

Grand Total

864

100%

 
         
 

What is your age range?

     
 

Q3 Age

#

%

 
 

1 18 to 35

8

1%

 
 

2 36 to 45

23

3%

 
 

3 46 to 54

60

7%

 
 

4 55 to 64

172

20%

 
 

5 65 or older

601

70%

 
 

Grand Total

864

100%

 
         
 

What is your ethnicity?

     
 

Q4 Ethnicity

#

%

 
 

1 African American

16

2%

 
 

2 Caucasian or White

830

96%

 
 

3 Other

18

2%

 
 

Grand Total

864

100%

 
         
 

What is your gender?

     
 

Q5 Gender

#

%

 
 

1 Male

363

42%

 
 

2 Female

501

58%

 
 

Grand Total

864

100%

 

www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231




Which candidate did you support in the primary?

Q6 Primary Vote

#

%

2 Thad Cochran

432

50%

3 Chris McDaniel

432

50%

Grand Total

864

100%

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

 

Q7 Voting Runoff

#

%

 
 

1 Definitely voting

840

97%

 
 

2 Probably vote

18

2%

 
 

3 Probably not vote

3

0%

 
 

4 Unsure

3

0%

 
 

Grand Total

864

100%

 

Which candidate do you plan to support?

 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

#

%

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

423

49%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

411

48%

 
 

3 Undecided

24

3%

 
 

Grand Total

858

100%

 
         
 

Who do you think will win?

     
 

Q9 Who will win?

#

%

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

430

50%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

434

50%

 
 

Grand Total

864

100%

 


www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231

 




Unweighted Crosstabs – By vote cast

Did you vote in the Republican Primary?

 

%

Q6 Primary Vote

   

Q1 Primary

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

1 Yes

100%

100%

100%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

   

In politics, how do you describe yourself?

 

%

Q6 Primary Vote

   

Q2 Party

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

3 Completely Independent

11%

10%

11%

4 Leaning Republican

23%

28%

26%

5 Mostly Republican

66%

62%

64%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

     
 

What is your age range?

 

%

Q6 Primary Vote

   

Q03 Age

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

1 18 to 35

1%

0%

1%

2 36 to 45

2%

3%

3%

3 46 to 54

6%

8%

7%

4 55 to 64

19%

21%

20%

5 65 or older

72%

67%

70%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

     
 

What is your ethnicity?

 

%

Q6 Primary Vote

   

Q4 Ethnicity

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

1 African American

2%

2%

2%

2 Caucasian or White

97%

96%

96%

3 Other

2%

3%

2%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

     
 

What is your gender?

 

%

Q6 Primary Vote

   

Q5 Gender

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

1 Male

38%

46%

42%

2 Female

62%

54%

58%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%



www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231





How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

 

%

 

Q6 Primary Vote

     
 

Q7 Voting Runoff

 

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

 
 

1 Definitely voting

98%

97%

97%

 
 

2 Probably vote

2%

2%

2%

 
 

3 Probably not vote

0%

0%

0%

 
 

4 Unsure

0%

0%

0%

 
 

Grand Total

 

100%

100%

100%

 
         
   

Which candidate do you plan to support?

   
 

%

 

Q6 Primary Vote

     
 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

 

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

96%

2%

49%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

1%

95%

48%

 
 

3 Undecided

3%

3%

3%

 
 

Grand Total

 

100%

100%

100%

 
         
   

Who do you think will win?

   
 

%

 

Q6 Primary Vote

     
 

Q9 Who will win?

 

2 Thad Cochran

3 Chris McDaniel

Grand Total

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

93%

6%

50%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

7%

94%

50%

 
 

Grand Total

 

100%

100%

100%

 



www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231

 


 

 

 

Crosstabs – By gender

Which candidate did you support in the primary?

%

Q5 Gender

   

Q6 Primary Vote

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

2 Thad Cochran

45%

53%

50%

3 Chris McDaniel

55%

47%

50%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

%

Q5 Gender

   

Q7 Voting Runoff

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

1 Definitely voting

98%

97%

97%

2 Probably vote

2%

2%

2%

3 Probably not vote

0%

0%

0%

4 Unsure

0%

0%

0%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

Which candidate do you plan to support?

 

%

 

Q5 Gender

     
 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

 

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

46%

52%

49%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

52%

45%

48%

 
 

3 Undecided

2%

3%

3%

 
 

Grand Total

 

100%

100%

100%

 
         
   

Who do you think will win?

   
 

%

 

Q5 Gender

     
 

Q9 Who will win?

 

1 Male

2 Female

Grand Total

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

46%

53%

50%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

54%

47%

50%

 
 

Grand Total

 

100%

100%

100%

 



www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231


 

 

  Crosstabs – By partisan identity

 

Which candidate did you support in the primary?

 

%

Q2 Party

       
   

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

   
 

Q6 Primary Vote

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 
 

2 Thad Cochran

53%

45%

52%

50%

 
 

3 Chris McDaniel

47%

55%

48%

50%

 
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 
         
   

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

   
 

%

Q2 Party

       
   

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

   
 

Q7 Voting Runoff

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 
 

1 Definitely voting

99%

95%

98%

97%

 
 

2 Probably vote

1%

4%

2%

2%

 
 

3 Probably not vote

0%

0%

1%

0%

 
 

4 Unsure

0%

1%

0%

0%

 
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 
         
   

Which candidate do you plan to support?

   
 

%

Q2 Party

       
   

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

   
 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

53%

43%

51%

49%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

45%

53%

46%

48%

 
 

3 Undecided

2%

4%

3%

3%

 
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 
           
   

Who do you think will win?

     
 

%

Q2 Party

       
   

3 Completely

4 Leaning

5 Mostly

   
 

Q9 Who will win?

Independent

Republican

Republican

Grand Total

 
 

1 Thad Cochran

53%

46%

51%

50%

 
 

2 Chris McDaniel

47%

54%

49%

50%

 
 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

 



www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231




Crosstabs – By ethnicity

Which candidate did you support in the primary?

 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

     
   

1 African

2 Caucasian or

   
 

Q6 Primary Vote

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

2 Thad Cochran

50%

50%

39%

50%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

50%

50%

61%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

       
   

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

 
 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

     
   

1 African

2 Caucasian or

   
 

Q7 Voting Runoff

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

1 Definitely voting

94%

97%

100%

97%

 

2 Probably vote

0%

2%

0%

2%

 

3 Probably not vote

6%

0%

0%

0%

 

4 Unsure

0%

0%

0%

0%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

       
   

Which candidate do you plan to support?

 
 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

     
   

1 African

2 Caucasian or

   
 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

53%

49%

44%

49%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

47%

48%

56%

48%

 

3 Undecided

0%

3%

0%

3%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

         
   

Who do you think will win?

   
 

%

Q4 Ethnicity

     
   

1 African

2 Caucasian or

   
 

Q9 Who will win?

American

White

3 Other

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

56%

50%

39%

50%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

44%

50%

61%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%



www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231




Crosstabs – By age

Which candidate did you support in the primary?

 

%

Q03 Age

         
 

Q6 Primary Vote

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

2 Thad Cochran

75%

35%

45%

47%

52%

50%

 

3 Chris McDaniel

25%

65%

55%

53%

48%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

         
   

How likely are you to vote in the runoff?

   
 

%

Q03 Age

         
 

Q7 Voting Runoff

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Definitely voting

88%

96%

98%

98%

97%

97%

 

2 Probably vote

0%

0%

2%

2%

2%

2%

 

3 Probably not vote

13%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

 

4 Unsure

0%

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

         
   

Which candidate do you plan to support?

   
 

%

Q03 Age

         
 

Q8 Runoff Horserace

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

71%

32%

47%

47%

51%

49%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

29%

68%

53%

51%

46%

48%

 

3 Undecided

0%

0%

0%

1%

4%

3%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

           
     

Who do you think will win?

   
 

%

Q03 Age

         
 

Q9 Who will win?

1 18 to 35

2 36 to 45

3 46 to 54

4 55 to 64

5 65 or older

Grand Total

 

1 Thad Cochran

75%

39%

47%

47%

51%

50%

 

2 Chris McDaniel

25%

61%

53%

53%

49%

50%

 

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%



www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231

 




Survey Instrument after the Screening and Demographics Questions.

Q6. Which candidate did you support in the June 3rd US Senate Republican Primary? The candidates were Thomas Carey, Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel.

   1. Press 1 for Thomas Carey      (Terminate Survey)

  1. Press 2 for Thad Cochran
  1. Press 3 for Chris McDaniel
    4. Press 4 if you cannot remember      (Terminate Survey)

Q7. How likely are you to vote in the runoff for the Republican Primary election for US Senate on June 24th? Are you definitely voting in the Republican primary runoff, probably voting, probably not voting or are you unsure?

  1. Press 1 if you are definitely voting in the June 24th Republican Primary runoff for US Senate
  1. Press 2 if you will probably vote
  1. Press 3 if you will probably not vote (Go to Q9)
    4. Press 4 if you are unsure      (Go to Q9)

Q8. Which candidate do you plan to support in the June 24th runoff between Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel?

  1. Press 1 for Thad Cochran
  1. Press 2 for Chris McDaniel
  1. Press 3 if you are undecided

Q9. Regardless of which candidate you support, who do you think will actually win the race on June 24th, Thad Cochran or Chris McDaniel?

  1. Press 1 for Thad Cochran
  1. Press 2 for Chris McDaniel

 

 

 

www.chismstrategies.com

601.982.0231

 

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